KEY ASSUMPTIONS
Target Market
- The global solid state battery market was valued at $53 million in 2017 and is projected to reach $1,407.69 million by 2025
- Europe is claimed to be the most lucrative market and biggest factor in the increase of solid state battery demand
Packaging
- A thick solid electrolyte layer/encasing which needs to be reduced to less than 50 μm, containing no flammable liquid electrolytes
Product Development
- One lead inventor with a research assistant for developing the battery, excluding the Solid Spark team of 5.
- 5-7 years until getting once Series A and B of funding (400k) is received
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Sales
- Begin B2B sales in Europe by 2026, starting with small to midsized automakers (Volvo, Fiat, Renault), before transitioning to leading German automakers.
- Use validation (if not sales, then client research and confirmation) from the solid state battery-interested European market to begin relationships with Ford, General Motors, and Chrysler
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Personnel
- $90,000 for lead inventor
- $45,000 for research assistant
- 1.25 load factor
- Head count of 7 to 15 by 2028
Financing
- Will need seed funding round of $40,000 to develop a prototype and gather client feedback, helping gain battery’s credibility.
- Total project funding (according to inventor):
• $1.2M from DOE
• Funding for FY2019 $400K (Series A)
• Funding for FY2020 $400K (Series B)
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REVENUE MODEL &Â PRODUCT PRICING
1. Recruiting/hiring of battery research professionals
2. Sourcing of battery insertion materials (lithium)
3. Patenting of battery technology
4. Commercialization of patented battery technology
5. Market to create relationships with key customers (EV manufacturers)
6. Partnership with EV manufacturer
7. Battery order from EV manufacturer
8. Royalty paid to inventor
KEY FINANCIAL METRICS AND COMPETITORS PRICING
The annual price survey has become an important benchmark in the industry and the fall in prices has been nothing short of remarkable: the volume weighted average battery pack fell 85% from 2010-18, reaching an average of $176/kWh. Based on this observation, and the battery demand forecast, it is expected that the price of an average battery pack will be around $94/kWh by 2024 and $62/kWh by 2030.
In 2010, a lithium-ion battery pack with 1 kWh of capacity—enough to power an electric car for three or four miles—cost more than $1,000. By 2019, the figure had fallen to $156, according to data compiled by BloombergNEF. Several forecasters project the average cost of a kilowatt-hour of lithium-ion battery capacity to fall below $100 by the mid-2020s.
There are upfront costs involved in developing a new battery technology. Further capital expenditures are needed to build a factory to manufacture it. The more units a factory produces, the more these costs can be spread out, allowing each unit to be a bit cheaper.
"We've seen the size of factories themselves increase, going from 1 or 2 GWh in 2010 to now 30 GWh," Frith told Ars.
Larger scale also gives battery manufacturers more purchasing power. Suppliers almost always offer customers discounts if they commit to large orders—partly because the suppliers have economies of scale, too.
